> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sharespective.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Good Bad News - URL: https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-10-03/ - Published: 2026-10-02T21:15:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-02T21:14:59.000Z - Description: Tesla beat every delivery forecast on its list, partly by selling cars it had already built. - Author: Shaun Botha - Tags: Daily | ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/08/mark-light-3.png) | SharespectiveWall Street, before morning tea | Daily newsletterSat 3 Oct 2026 | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | | ![Today's edition](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/08/kicker-1.png)Good Bad News**Plus:** Tesla beat every delivery forecast on its list, partly by selling cars it had already built. | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | **Good morning.** A weak American jobs report gave Wall Street a strong Friday. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 1.19% as traders priced out an October rate rise. The Dow added 250 points. The bond market was less cheerful, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished higher. Tesla had the day's best company news. Seagate and Western Digital had the worst, after a report that Toshiba wants a much bigger slice of a business only three companies are in. In company news, Synaptics jumped 13.82% after onsemi agreed to buy it for US$123 a share in cash, about US$5.7 billion in all. Elsewhere, Nvidia, one of our preferred stocks, rose 1.34% as buyers returned to tech, touching its first record high since May along the way. Finally, Nike fell 3.64% on Thursday's weak outlook and plans to cut jobs. Funny old market. ### Market snapshot | S&P 5007,722.72**▲ 0.73%** | ​ | NASDAQ27,190.86**▲ 1.19%** | ​ | NZX 5013,680.49**▼ 0.94%** | | -------------------------- | - | -------------------------- | - | ---------------------------- | | ​ | | | | | | ASX 2008,682.10**▲ 0.79%** | ​ | TeslaUS$370.59**▲ 4.65%** | ​ | SeagateUS$848.99**▼ 10.21%** | The US levels are Friday 2 October's closes in New York. The NZX 50 and ASX 200 are Friday's local closes. The Tesla and Seagate rows are that session's closing price and move. | ​ | ECONOMY | | - | ------- | ## America added 29,000 jobs in September, and Wall Street took it as good news American employers added 29,000 jobs in September, about a third of what economists expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Health care supplied 17,000 of the new jobs on its own. **So why did stocks rally on a bad number?** The Federal Reserve has been leaning towards another rate rise, and a cooling job market weakens the case for one. By Friday's close, futures put the odds of a rise at the 27-28 October meeting at about one in five. Pay helped too. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in the month and 3.0% over the year, against the 3.2% economists expected. Slower pay rises put less pressure on prices. Bonds were harder to convince. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 5.18% just after the report, then climbed for the rest of the day. It settled near 5.28%, almost five basis points higher than it started. | Not so fastfutures still price a rise by December, so Friday pushed the expected move back a meeting or so. Our read is that the job market is cooling faster than inflation is, and the Fed now has to decide which of the two worries it more. | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | ​ | ELECTRIC VEHICLES | | - | ----------------- | ## Tesla beat every delivery forecast, with help from cars it had already built Tesla, one of our preferred stocks, delivered 486,532 vehicles in the September quarter. The analyst forecasts the company gathered averaged 461,974, and it beat every one of them. The shares closed 4.65% higher at US$370.59 on Friday. **Part of the beat came out of the car park.** Tesla built 464,391 vehicles in the quarter, so it delivered 22,141 more than it made. That was the second quarter in a row of shrinking stock. The comparison with last year is softer. Deliveries were about 2% below the 497,099 of a year earlier, when American buyers rushed to beat the end of the federal EV tax credit on 30 September 2025\. They were up from 480,126 in the June quarter. The Model 3 and Model Y made up 478,237 of the total. Everything else, including the Cybertruck and the Semi, came to 8,295, down 48% on a year ago. | The real testproduction. Tesla can only sell from its car parks for so long, and I'd want to see output climbing back towards deliveries by the December quarter. Full results follow on 21 October. | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ​ | HARDWARE | | - | -------- | ## A Toshiba factory plan took a tenth off Seagate and Western Digital Seagate closed at US$848.99 on Friday, down 10.21%, and Western Digital fell 10.22% to US$415.29\. Even after that, Seagate is up more than 200% this year and Western Digital more than 140%. **Toshiba is spending modestly and aiming high.** Nikkei reported that Toshiba will spend about ¥60 billion, roughly US$400 million, to double its hard drive output by its 2027 financial year. It holds just over 10% of the market by capacity and wants 30%. AI data centres want every hard drive the three makers can build. Seagate and Western Digital have both said their 2026 output is sold out. That scarcity has let them push prices up. Citi's Asiya Merchant thinks the market may be overstating the threat. Toshiba buys the read heads and the disks from outside suppliers, and those suppliers would need to expand as well. | Food for thoughtthese two shares were priced for hard drives staying scarce for years. A third maker adding capacity is the first real test of that, and the next results from each will show whether 2027 contract prices are holding. | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ### Newsworthy numbers | ​ | ​ | ​ | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | - | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 100 million barrelsof diesel and other reserves the G7 agreed on Friday to release through the International Energy Agency over four months, most of the diesel within 20 days. It follows a record 400 million barrels in March. | ​ | US$64.6 billionSoftBank's total investment in OpenAI after it paid the last US$10 billion of a US$30 billion pledge this week, for a stake of about 13%. Nvidia paid its final US$10 billion at the same time. | | ​ | | | | ​ | ​ | ​ | | 13.7 GWhthe battery storage Tesla deployed in the September quarter, up from 12.5 GWh a year earlier and 13.5 GWh in the June quarter. | ​ | 60,000jobs removed from America's July and August payroll counts in Friday's revisions. July now shows a loss of 10,000. | ### Worth a read | ​ | | | -- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 01 | **[Kiwibank raises fixed home loan rates](https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/140396/spring-real-estate-selling-season-not-going-get-encouragement-home-loan?ref=sharespective.com)** — David Chaston on how the jump in American bond yields reached New Zealand borrowers. Kiwibank lifted five of its six fixed terms, taking the one-year rate up 20 basis points to 5.15%. | | ​ | | | 02 | **[No captain needed: the startup making autonomous boats](https://thehustle.co/news/no-captain-needed-the-startup-making-autonomous-boats?ref=sharespective.com)** — Bill Meincke on Seasats, which sent an uncrewed, solar-powered boat 7,500 miles from San Diego to Japan. It has raised US$40 million and won more than US$100 million of government contracts. | | ​ | | | 03 | **[Taiwan's six-year hunt for China's undercover chip labs](https://restofworld.org/2026/taiwan-china-chip-investigations/?ref=sharespective.com)** — Kinling Lo on 166 investigations into tech firms hiding Chinese ties. One engineer earned double the going rate at a company he thought was American, and spent all his time working with engineers in Nanjing. | | ​ | | | 04 | **[Scientists find an "earthquake gate" as California fault stress hits a 1,000-year high](https://sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/10/261001095521.htm?ref=sharespective.com)** — Liliane Burkhard's team at the University of Bern found that Cajon Pass decides whether a rupture stops or jumps between the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults. Stress there is the highest in their 1,000-year simulation. | | ​ | | | 05 | **[Naughty orangutans and primping praying mantis captured in Comedy Wildlife Photography Awards](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-02/comedy-wildlife-photography-awards-finalists-announced/107221426?ref=sharespective.com)** — More than 10,000 entries came in this year, and the finalists include a sleepy hummingbird and a cheeky orangutan. The winner is named in December. | ### Wrapping up September's consumer price index arrives on Wednesday 14 October in New York, at 1.30​am Thursday in Auckland and 11.30​pm Wednesday in Sydney. After Friday's jobs report, it is the number most likely to settle whether the Fed moves in October or waits for December. Delta Air Lines reports before the open on Friday 9 October, and its fuel bill is the line to find with Brent crude near US$100 a barrel. Closer to home, New Zealand's election is five weeks away, on 7 November, and the polls have it close. USD/NZD is at 1.78 and USD/AUD at 1.44, with the kiwi and the Aussie both slightly firmer on the day. Roosters and Knights tomorrow night in Sydney. Back on Monday with the week. ​ General information and commentary only, not financial advice. It does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs, and reflects the author's own reading of public information at the time of writing, which may be wrong. Sharespective, its people and its clients may hold positions in the companies covered. Do your own research and talk to a licensed adviser.