> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sharespective.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Show Us the Money - URL: https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-10-26/ - Published: 2026-10-25T21:15:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-25T21:15:00.000Z - Description: New Zealand's Reserve Bank looks set to lift rates on Wednesday, ten days before the election. - Author: Shaun Botha - Tags: Daily | ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/08/mark-light-3.png) | SharespectiveWall Street, before morning tea | Daily newsletterMon 26 Oct 2026 | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------- | | ![Today's edition](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/08/kicker-1.png)Show Us the Money**Plus:** New Zealand's Reserve Bank looks set to lift rates on Wednesday, ten days before the election. | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | **Good morning.** The S&P 500 lost 0.47% last week and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.71%, a second weekly loss in a row for both. The Dow gained 0.41%, and the small-company Russell 2000 rose 2.0%. Thursday did the damage. Meta's bigger spending plans and a parts shortage at Lam Research sent chip stocks down more than 6% that day. This week, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report on what they are spending. It is a big week to be a data centre. In company news, Charles River Laboratories rose 15.1% over the week after its investor day promised more than US$300 million of savings from 2027 to 2030\. Elsewhere, Roper Technologies jumped 14.5% because quarterly earnings beat forecasts and it raised its full-year outlook. Finally, Howmet Aerospace fell 15.9% as aircraft-parts makers slid after GE Aerospace's results. Three up, two down. ### Market snapshot | S&P 5007,623.68**▼ 0.47%** | ​ | NASDAQ25,955.34**▼ 0.71%** | ​ | NZX 5013,733.93**▼ 0.14%** | | -------------------------- | - | -------------------------- | - | -------------------------- | | ​ | | | | | | ASX 2008,795.20**▼ 0.13%** | ​ | USD/NZD1.76**▼ 0.41%** | ​ | USD/AUD1.42**▼ 0.90%** | Levels are Friday 23 October's closes; changes are for the week to Friday 23 October, measured from Friday 16 October's close. The NZX 50 and ASX 200 are local closes, and the NZX is shut today for Labour Day. The currencies use the European Central Bank's reference rates for both Fridays. | ​ | BIG TECH | | - | -------- | ## Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report this week, with about US$600 billion of spending to explain Alphabet and Microsoft report after Wednesday's close in New York, and Amazon follows on Thursday, which is Thursday and Friday morning here. Analysts expect earnings of US$2.94 a share from Alphabet, US$4.71 from Microsoft and US$2.01 from Amazon. **Why do three results matter this much?** The biggest companies have been dragging the index around. Over the two weeks to Friday, the S&P 500 fell 2.4% while the median stock in it rose 4.0%, according to Dave Johnson of the Trading Time Machine newsletter. He found only two ten-day stretches since 1990 that were more lopsided, both in 2000\. The ten biggest companies make up about 42% of the index. The spending is the big number. Alphabet expects to put US$195 billion to US$205 billion into equipment and buildings this year. Amazon plans about US$220 billion and Microsoft US$175 billion, most of it on data centres. That money is meant to come back through the cloud. Google Cloud's revenue rose 82% in the June quarter, and Amazon Web Services grew 37%. Microsoft expects 45% growth from Azure in the September quarter. | The yardstickcloud growth against the spending bill. Meta raised its spending forecast last week, and its shares fell with the chipmakers. I'd want to see cloud revenue at these three growing faster than their spending. | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ​ | ECONOMY | | - | ------- | ## New Zealand's Reserve Bank is expected to lift rates to 3% on Wednesday, ten days before the election The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decides at 2​pm on Wednesday in Wellington, noon in Sydney. It is expected to lift the official cash rate a quarter-point to 3%, its third rise in a row. **Three weeks ago this looked like a coin toss.** In early October, markets put the chance of a rise at about 58%. ASB's Mark Smith now reckons it is about 90% priced in, and BNZ, ANZ, ASB, Kiwibank and Westpac all expect it. Inflation is the reason. Prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, above the 1% to 3% target. ASB expects annual inflation of 4.7% by the December quarter, as fuel and a weaker kiwi push up import costs. Australia gets its own test the same day, when September-quarter inflation figures land at 11.30​am in Sydney, 1.30​pm in Auckland. The RBA's cash rate is already 4.60%, and inflation reached 4.0% in August. Its deputy governor, Andrew Hauser, warned last week that the outlook is much worse than the bank had forecast. Market odds of a rise to 4.85% on 3 November, Melbourne Cup Day, jumped from about 20% to around half. | The longer viewWestpac's Kelly Eckhold expects the cash rate to reach 4% by September 2027, and says a split vote on Wednesday seems very possible. For anyone refixing a mortgage, that path matters more than this week's quarter-point. | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | ​ | COMMODITIES | | - | ----------- | ## Gold had its worst week since June, falling about 4% as oil climbed Gold slipped below US$4,000 an ounce on Friday and finished the week down about 4%. The metal is now more than a quarter below the record it set in late January. **So why did a safe haven fall during a war scare?** Dearer oil makes higher interest rates more likely. Brent had its highest close since April on Friday, and traders now put the chance of a Fed rise in December at about 78%. Gold pays no interest, so it loses appeal when cash and bonds pay more. ING's analysts said gold seems more focused on what oil means for central banks than on the fighting. The sharemarket added to the pressure. Metals analyst Jim Wyckoff said margin calls were forcing equity traders to sell gold and silver. A margin call is a broker's demand for cash when shares bought with borrowed money fall. Bonds went the other way. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5% on Thursday as investors bought government debt. Falling yields usually help gold, and last week they did not. | Our readwe think gold is trading as a bet on interest rates for now. The Fed decides on Wednesday in Washington, and any hint of a December rise would keep the pressure on. | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ### Newsworthy numbers | ​ | ​ | ​ | | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | - | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 43 millionthe Facebook privacy violations a New Mexico jury found Meta committed. The judge cut the US$219 billion maximum penalty to about a ninth of that, and Meta will appeal. | ​ | US$450 millionwhat Intuitive Surgical agreed to pay to settle an antitrust class action over its da Vinci surgical robots. | | ​ | | | | ​ | ​ | ​ | | 542companies worth US$2 billion or more reporting results this week, with 202 on Thursday alone. | ​ | 3.6 millionAustralian households that went without enough food in the past year, up from 3.5 million, according to Foodbank's latest Hunger Report. | ### Worth a read | ​ | | | -- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 01 | **[Raiding super to pay medical bills leaves trail of 'financial damage'](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-10-23/superannuation-early-withdrawals-record-high/107295652?ref=sharespective.com)** — Stephanie Dalzell and Paige Cockburn on Asuperannuation-early-withdrawals-record-high/107295652)\*\*.46 billion of early super withdrawals last year, A$892 million of it for dental work. | | ​ | | | 02 | **[Why Snowy Hydro's $25 billion cost blowout is a warning sign for other megaprojects](https://theconversation.com/why-snowy-hydros-25-billion-cost-blowout-is-a-warning-sign-for-other-megaprojects-295057?ref=sharespective.com)** — Dominic Ahiaga-Dagbui on a pumped-hydro scheme first costed at A$2 billion in 2017 and now due eight years late. | | ​ | | | 03 | **[Teen girls are hitting the flag football field](https://thehustle.co/news/teen-girls-are-hitting-the-flag-football-field?ref=sharespective.com)** — Danny Jensen on more than 100,000 American high-school girls playing flag football, up 48% in a year, with the NFL backing a professional league. | | ​ | | | 04 | **[This Mysterious Mushroom Makes People See Hundreds of Tiny Humans](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/10/261024222021.htm?ref=sharespective.com)** — University of Utah mycologists pin the visions on Lanmaoa asiatica, a Yunnan mushroom whose active compound nobody has identified. | | ​ | | | 05 | **[Charnel Heart](https://longreads.com/2026/10/22/ossuary-charnel-house-heart-illness-death/?ref=sharespective.com)** — Kristin Idaszak returns to the Sedlec Ossuary, decorated with the bones of about 40,000 people, after nearly dying of a heart arrhythmia. | ### Wrapping up The S&P 500 rose for three sessions last week, then gave it all back and more. The Fed decides at 7​am Thursday in Auckland, 5​am in Sydney, with more than 90% odds of a hold at 3.75% to 4.00%. US growth and PCE inflation follow at 1.30​am Friday in Auckland, 11.30​pm Thursday in Sydney. Visa reports on Tuesday in New York; cross-border spending is the line to watch. Eli Lilly reports on Thursday, with weight-loss drug sales in focus. Europe and Japan also set rates, and New Zealand votes on 7 November. The Aussie had the better week. USD/AUD fell 0.90% to 1.42 as bets on a November rate rise grew, while USD/NZD eased 0.41% to 1.76. ### The week ahead - **Wed 1.30​pm NZ · 11.30​am Sydney** — Australia's September-quarter inflation figures, before the RBA meets on 3 November. - **Wed 2​pm NZ · noon Sydney** — Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision; about 90% priced for a quarter-point rise to 3%. - **Thu 7​am NZ · 5​am Sydney** — Federal Reserve decision; markets put more than 90% odds on a hold at 3.75–4.00%. - **Thu 9.30​am NZ · 7.30​am Sydney** — Alphabet's results call; analysts expect earnings of US$2.94 a share. - **Thu 10.30​am NZ · 8.30​am Sydney** — Microsoft's results call, with Azure growth against its 45% guidance the line to watch. - **Fri 1.30​am NZ · Thu 11.30​pm Sydney** — US September-quarter growth figures and September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure. - **Fri 10​am NZ · 8​am Sydney** — Amazon's results call; analysts expect earnings of US$2.01 a share. Enjoy the last of the long weekend, New Zealand. See you tomorrow. ​ General information and commentary only, not financial advice. It does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs, and reflects the author's own reading of public information at the time of writing, which may be wrong. Sharespective, its people and its clients may hold positions in the companies covered. Do your own research and talk to a licensed adviser.