> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sharespective.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The One-Day Rally - URL: https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-11-09/ - Published: 2026-11-08T22:15:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-08T22:15:00.000Z - Description: the market's worst week since April last year still produced a stock that rose 71%. - Author: Shaun Botha - Tags: Daily | ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/08/mark-light-3.png) | SharespectiveWall Street, before morning tea | Daily newsletterMon 9 Nov 2026 | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------ | | ![Today's edition](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/08/kicker-1.png)The One-Day Rally**Plus:** the market's worst week since April last year still produced a stock that rose 71%. | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | **Good morning.** Wall Street spent Wednesday celebrating the midterm result and Thursday taking it all back. The S&P 500 finished the week down 2.68%, its worst since April last year, and the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.37%. That is four losing weeks in a row. This week hands the decision to the inflation numbers: America's October consumer prices land on Tuesday in Washington, and futures have a December rate rise at about 80%. In company news, Seagate fell 28.4% over the week as brokers cut their targets and Morgan Stanley said it was shipping less storage than expected. Elsewhere, Mosaic rose 21.6% because potash volumes and lower costs offset a weak phosphate market. Finally, Axon dropped 16% on Friday after revenue missed and it cut its full-year forecasts. Wednesday's party, Thursday's bill. ### Market snapshot | S&P 5007,376.86**▼ 2.68%** | ​ | NASDAQ24,579.42**▼ 3.37%** | ​ | NZX 5013,998.50**▲ 1.46%** | | -------------------------- | - | -------------------------- | - | -------------------------- | | ​ | | | | | | ASX 2009,020.80**▲ 1.27%** | ​ | USD/NZD1.80**▲ 1.63%** | ​ | USD/AUD1.46**▲ 2.44%** | Levels are Friday 6 November's closes, local closes for the NZX 50 and ASX 200; changes are for the week to Friday 6 November, from Friday 30 October's close. | ​ | ENERGY | | - | ------ | ## Energy stocks had their worst week since April 2025 as the war premium drained out of oil The energy companies in the S&P 500 fell 12.0% last week, the worst of the index's 11 sectors and almost double the next worst. It is the group's steepest week since April 2025, and bigger than 98.9% of weeks since 1999. **The trigger was a conversation rather than a barrel.** Iran and the United States both signalled on 2 November that they would rather talk than fight. West Texas Intermediate then fell about 15% in three sessions, from above US$104 to near US$88. What left the price was fear. Torsten Sløk, Apollo's chief economist, notes Iran's crude exports have fallen from roughly 1.8 million barrels a day to essentially zero, and the market had been paying for that risk all through October. Energy shares skipped crude's recovery. WTI clawed back about 3% on Friday to settle at US$90.83 and Brent at US$98.32, and the sector still fell 3% to its lowest close since 30 September. Exxon Mobil and Chevron each lost about 2%. | The tellcheaper crude reaches Tuesday's inflation report long before it reaches anyone's dividend. Energy is still 2026's best sector, up about 40% for the year, and our read is that the market has already banked a deal Tehran and Washington have not signed. | | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | ​ | ADVERTISING | | - | ----------- | ## AppLovin rose 71% in five sessions during the market's worst week since April 2025 AppLovin closed at US$391.22 on Friday after rising in every session of the week, a cumulative gain of 71.2%. It started the week at its 52-week low of US$228.50, set on 30 October. **The September quarter did most of the work.** Revenue reached US$2.185 billion, up 55% on a year earlier. Net income was US$1.439 billion, up 72%, a margin of 66%, and diluted earnings came in at US$4.30 a share against the US$4.04 analysts expected. The forecast did the rest. AppLovin guided December-quarter revenue to between US$2.365 billion and US$2.395 billion, against the US$2.25 billion analysts had pencilled in. The company sells the software that picks which advert appears inside a mobile game, and takes a cut of what the advertiser pays. The share price had been taken apart all year. AppLovin is down from a 52-week high of US$733.60, and has fallen nearly 60% in 2026 across two earnings-day drops of close to 20%, short-seller allegations it denies, and securities fraud suits. | The open questionFriday's close still leaves AppLovin 46.7% below its 52-week high, so a 71% week has repaired about half of one bad year. I'd want to see a second quarter like this one before calling the argument over the numbers settled. | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ​ | POLITICS | | - | -------- | ## New Zealand voted on Saturday and will not know the result until 27 November National and Labour each took just short of 30% of the party vote on Saturday. The National-led coalition with ACT and New Zealand First holds 67 of a projected 131 seats, one more than the 66 it needs for a majority. **The special votes will decide it.** About 14% of the ballots are still to be counted, cast overseas or outside the voter's own electorate. They have historically leaned left, and the final count lands on 27 November, three weeks after the vote. Neither leader claimed the win. Christopher Luxon said National is again the largest party in parliament and has a pathway to government, though it is too close to call. Chris Hipkins told supporters the next parliament will require all of them to compromise. Markets had larger things to think about. The NZX 50 set a record close of 14,090.97 on Thursday as the American midterm result landed, gave back 0.66% on Friday, and still finished the week 1.46% higher. | What to watchcoalition talks cannot start properly until the final count, so three weeks pass with nobody able to say who sets fiscal policy. Business groups have warned the wait could take the edge off Christmas trading, and retailers find that out before anyone else. | | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ### Newsworthy numbers | ​ | ​ | ​ | | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | - | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | US$377.4 billionBerkshire Hathaway's cash pile at the end of September, a record, reported on Saturday. It also spent a record US$9.6 billion in the quarter on the one thing it clearly liked: its own shares. | ​ | A$7.59 billionANZ's cash profit for the year to September, reported this morning in Sydney, up 31%. The final dividend is 83 Australian cents, unchanged. | | ​ | | | | ​ | ​ | ​ | | 63.66New Zealand's trade-weighted exchange rate index on Friday, a 24-year low, last seen in December 2002. | ​ | 7%the share of the night sky in the Rubin Observatory's first batch of data, enough to turn up two unknown companions of the Milky Way. | ### Worth a read | ​ | | | -- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | 01 | **[Cash rate hits 4.85%: CBA, NAB, Westpac and ANZ responses](https://www.savings.com.au/news/rba-hikes-again-here-s-how-the-big-four-responded?ref=sharespective.com)** — Bernadette Lunas on where the year's fifth rise lands. All four majors lift variable home loan rates 0.25% from Friday, and only Westpac moved its savings rates. | | ​ | | | 02 | **[The AI boom is facing another supply crunch. This time it's the amount of capital available](https://fortune.com/2026/11/02/ai-boom-supply-crunch-capital-debt-bonds-capex-spending/?ref=sharespective.com)** — Jason Ma on the limit nobody budgeted for. Gartner reckons data centres need US$8.5 trillion of revenue by 2030 to justify the spending, and will generate at most US$3.6 trillion. | | ​ | | | 03 | **[Next CPI Report on November 10 Will Have No Yearly Inflation Rate for Overall Prices](https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/october-2026-cpi-preview-no-yearly-rate?ref=sharespective.com)** — the awkward legacy of last year's shutdown. October 2025 prices were never collected, so Tuesday's report gives a monthly change plus an annual rate for petrol and cars, and nothing else. | | ​ | | | 04 | **[Longest Feather Ever Found in Amber Offers Clues to Flight's Origins](https://www.sci.news/paleontology/longest-amber-feather-15181.html?ref=sharespective.com)** — a 99-million-year-old feather from Burmese amber, 105mm preserved and probably 140mm when whole. It has neat symmetrical vanes and none of the interlocking barbs that make a feather fly. | | ​ | | | 05 | **[Exploring the Dawn of the Space Age](https://archaeology.org/issues/november-december-2026/letters-from/dawn-of-the-space-age/?ref=sharespective.com)** — Ben O'Donnell on the 600-odd archaeological sites inside Cape Canaveral, where missile wreckage sits among the bricks of an 1847 lighthouse. The 1950 launch bunker was a tar-paper shack. | ### Wrapping up The week ran in two halves: a 1.58% rally on Wednesday as the midterm result landed, then a 4.36% fall on Thursday. US consumer prices for October arrive at 2.30​am Wednesday in Auckland and 12.30​am in Sydney, with core prices expected up 0.2%. Rocket Lab reports after tonight's close in New York, where Neutron's slip to 2027 matters more than the quarter. CoreWeave follows on Tuesday, Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday. Commonwealth Bank updates on Wednesday in Sydney, and Stats NZ has October card spending on Thursday. USD/AUD rose 2.44% to 1.46, the Aussie's weakest since July, after the Reserve Bank of Australia paired its rise with a gloomier view of growth. USD/NZD rose 1.63% to 1.80 as election nerves met a firmer US dollar. ### The week ahead - **Tue 10​am NZ · 8​am Sydney** — Rocket Lab's September-quarter results, after Monday's close in New York; revenue is guided to between US$250 million and US$265 million. - **Tue 1.30​pm NZ · 11.30​am Sydney** — NAB's October business survey, the first read on Australian confidence since the fifth rate rise. - **Wed 2.30​am NZ · 12.30​am Sydney** — US consumer prices for October; core prices are expected up 0.2%, with no annual rate published at all. - **Wed 10​am NZ · 8​am Sydney** — CoreWeave's results, after Tuesday's close in New York; the contracted backlog is the line to watch. - **Thu 10.45​am NZ · 8.45​am Sydney** — New Zealand's October electronic card spending, from Stats NZ. - **Fri 10​am NZ · 8​am Sydney** — Cisco and Applied Materials report after Thursday's close in New York; Cisco's consensus is US$1.32 a share. - **Sat 2.30​am NZ · 12.30​am Sydney** — US producer prices for October; the core measure is expected up 0.3%. Three weeks to a government, New Zealand. Back tomorrow. ​ General information and commentary only, not financial advice. It does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs, and reflects the author's own reading of public information at the time of writing, which may be wrong. Sharespective, its people and its clients may hold positions in the companies covered. Do your own research and talk to a licensed adviser.