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# The 10-year Treasury yield is back above 5% and American housing is already paying for it
- URL: https://www.sharespective.com/stories/10-year-treasury-yield-back-above-2026-11-13/
- Published: 2026-11-12T22:15:01.000Z
- Updated: 2026-11-12T22:50:43.000Z
- Description: The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 13 basis points on Thursday to a little over 5.1%. The two-year added 15 basis points to 4.879%.
- Author: Shaun Botha
- Tags: Rates, #story, #group-economy

The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 13 basis points on Thursday to a little over 5.1%. The two-year added 15 basis points to 4.879%.

**The move started with oil.** Trump posted that the United States does not need a deal with Iran, because it already has Iran's money and its strait. West Texas Intermediate settled 2% higher at US$88.19 and Brent 1.9% higher at US$94.48.

Dearer crude feeds inflation, and the Federal Reserve is raising rates to fight inflation. A quarter-point rise in December was priced at 88% after Tuesday's consumer price report. Futures have it fully priced this morning.

![Chart: US 10-year yield averaged 5.13% in October. The 10-year US Treasury yield, monthly average, in percent, November 2016 to October 2026. It rose again on Thursday; US home sales hit a 16-year low in October.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/11/10-year-treasury-yield-back-above-2026-11-13-chart.jpg)

This story’s chart of the day.

The cost of all this turns up in housing first. American existing home sales fell 5.5% in October to an annual pace of 3.75 million, the weakest in 16 years, with 1.59 million homes sitting on the market. Weekly jobless claims rose 9,000 to 200,000.

A word of caution 

Chris Rupkey of FWDBONDS reckons higher rates are now driving the housing correction deeper. Our read is that a 10-year above 5% works on American mortgages first, and October's home sales are the early evidence.

[ This story ran in Nvidia Without Jensen Friday 13 November’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition → ](https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-11-13/)