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# Petrol pushed US inflation to 3.7%, and the Fed's next meeting is suddenly live
- URL: https://www.sharespective.com/stories/petrol-pushed-us-inflation-3-7-2026-10-15/
- Published: 2026-10-14T21:15:02.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-19T19:29:38.000Z
- Description: American consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August. Economists expected 3.6%.
- Author: Shaun Botha
- Tags: Economy, #story, #group-economy

American consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, up from 3.4% in August. Economists expected 3.6%.

**Most of the surprise came from the petrol pump.** Petrol prices rose 9.1% in September alone, and that was more than half of the month's 0.6% rise in prices. Core inflation, which leaves out food and energy, ran at 2.6% for the year, against 2.5% expected.

That was enough to change the sums on interest rates. Before the release, futures traders put the chance of a Fed rate rise on 28 October at about 22%, according to CME FedWatch. By Wednesday morning in New York it was above 40%.

[![Chart: US petrol prices jump 9.1% in September. Monthly change in US petrol prices, seasonally adjusted, January 2022 to September 2026, in percent. Annual inflation reached 3.7%; core was 2.6%.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/10/chart-petrol-prices-seasonally-adjusted-2026-10-15-wide-light.jpg)](https://www.sharespective.com/chart-petrol-prices-seasonally-adjusted-2026-10-15/) 

This story’s chart of the day: the numbers, the dark version and the animated version are on its own page. [The chart’s page →](https://www.sharespective.com/chart-petrol-prices-seasonally-adjusted-2026-10-15/)

Bond yields jumped and then gave it all back. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.3% in the morning. It closed at 5.19%, slightly lower than it started.

Borrowers were already paying for higher rates. The average 30-year mortgage rate in the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey reached 7.50% last week.

Worth pondering 

whether petrol keeps doing the Fed's thinking for it. Core inflation at 2.6% looks manageable on its own. Our read is that a rate rise aimed at petrol prices would land on mortgage holders long before it did anything about the oil price.

[ This story ran in Running Hot Thursday 15 October’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition → ](https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-10-15/)