> ## Content Index
> Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.sharespective.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further.

# A surprise first-round vote sent Brazil's shares in New York up 12.5%
- URL: https://www.sharespective.com/stories/surprise-first-round-vote-sent-brazils-2026-10-06/
- Published: 2026-10-05T21:15:01.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-19T19:28:53.000Z
- Description: The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, a New York-listed fund holding 59 Brazilian companies, rose 12.54% to US$42.98 on Monday. Nu Holdings, the digital bank, gained 13.03% to US$15.18.
- Author: Shaun Botha
- Tags: Emerging markets, #story, #group-economy

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, a New York-listed fund holding 59 Brazilian companies, rose 12.54% to US$42.98 on Monday. Nu Holdings, the digital bank, gained 13.03% to US$15.18.

**It started with Sunday's presidential vote.** Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, won 47.03% of valid votes in the first round. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took 45.16%, and the polls had Lula finishing first.

At home, the Ibovespa rose 7.70% to a record 206,911.89\. That was its first close above 200,000\. The real strengthened past five to the US dollar, from about 5.21 on Friday.

![Chart: Brazil's shares in New York jump 12.54%. Daily close of the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, a New York fund of 59 Brazilian companies, in US$, 27 July to 5 October 2026. It closed at US$38.19 on Friday.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/10/surprise-first-round-vote-sent-brazils-2026-10-06-chart.jpg)

This story’s chart of the day.

Bolsonaro is running on tighter spending, privatisations and lower taxes. Brazil's government debt and budget deficits are large, and investors want someone to bring them down.

Neither candidate is free of scandal. Bolsonaro is under investigation for money laundering over the collapse of Banco Master, which he denies.

The open question 

the runoff on 25 October. Polymarket made Bolsonaro an 82.5% favourite before a vote was counted, so Monday was the polls catching up with the betting. Between now and then, Brazilian polls will move these shares more than anything the companies report.

[ This story ran in Bids and Ballots Tuesday 6 October’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition → ](https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-10-06/)