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# US wholesale prices jumped 1.3% in September, and bond yields fell anyway
- URL: https://www.sharespective.com/stories/us-wholesale-prices-jumped-1-3-2026-10-16/
- Published: 2026-10-15T21:15:02.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-19T19:29:43.000Z
- Description: America's producer price index, which tracks what businesses charge each other, rose 1.3% in September. Economists expected 0.5%. Over the year, wholesale prices are up 6.3%.
- Author: Shaun Botha
- Tags: Economy, #story, #group-economy

America's producer price index, which tracks what businesses charge each other, rose 1.3% in September. Economists expected 0.5%. Over the year, wholesale prices are up 6.3%.

**So why did the bond market shrug?** Petrol did most of the damage. Wholesale petrol prices rose 20.3% in the month, and energy accounted for about 80% of the rise in goods prices.

Traders read that as an oil shock rather than a broad one. On Wednesday, CME FedWatch put the chance of a Fed rate rise on 28 October above 40%. By Thursday afternoon in New York it was below 30%.

[![Chart: US wholesale prices jump 1.3%, led by petrol. Monthly change in US producer prices, in %, Jan 2022 to Sep 2026; dots leave out food and energy. Economists expected 0.5% for September.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/02/71/0271df32-cec6-421f-9f13-b06ab90e54c1/content/images/2026/10/chart-producer-prices-dots-leave-2026-10-16-wide-light.jpg)](https://www.sharespective.com/chart-producer-prices-dots-leave-2026-10-16/) 

This story’s chart of the day: the numbers, the dark version and the animated version are on its own page. [The chart’s page →](https://www.sharespective.com/chart-producer-prices-dots-leave-2026-10-16/)

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.09%, from 5.19% on Wednesday. John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said he had no reason for now to think the Fed needs to do more.

Shoppers kept spending. Retail sales rose 0.8% in September against 0.3% expected, though spending at petrol stations jumped 6.4%. Strip out fuel, cars, building materials and restaurant meals, and sales rose just 0.1%.

The short version 

the inflation is arriving through the petrol pump, and so is the slowdown. I'd watch that 0.1% more closely than the headline from here, because Americans paying more for fuel have less left for everything else.

[ This story ran in Wholesale Heat Friday 16 October’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition → ](https://www.sharespective.com/sharespective-2026-10-16/)