US two-year yield jumps to 4.731% after CPI
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What the chart shows
Last month Fed governor Waller named the core inflation reading that would make a half-point rise worth considering in December. On Tuesday, October's core reading met it, and he made the point again within hours.
Bonds reacted before anyone else. The two-year Treasury yield rose 18 basis points to 4.731%, having drifted from 4.83% at the start of October to 4.51% on 6 November. This chart sets those weekly closes beside the Fed's target ceiling, which went up in September and sits at 4.00%.
A quarter-point rise in December is still the likelier outcome. Waller has one vote of twelve, and much of October's increase came from shelter, which moves slowly whatever the Fed does.
The story behind it
October's inflation report put a half-point rate rise back on the table Read the edition →On the calendar
The US releases that move markets, in New Zealand and Australian time. Economic calendar →The numbers
The US two-year Treasury yield at each Friday's close from 17 July, then Monday and Tuesday, against the top of the Fed's 3.75% to 4.00% target range.
| US two-year Treasury yield (%) | Top of the Fed's target range (%) | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2026 | 4.18% | 3.75% |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 4.33% | 3.75% |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 4.28% | 3.75% |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 4.19% | 3.75% |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 4.17% | 3.75% |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 4.24% | 3.75% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 4.34% | 3.75% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 4.37% | 3.75% |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 4.63% | 3.75% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 4.76% | 4.00% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 4.81% | 4.00% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 4.83% | 4.00% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 4.80% | 4.00% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 4.74% | 4.00% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 4.69% | 4.00% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.56% | 4.00% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | 4.51% | 4.00% |
| 9 Nov 2026 | 4.56% | 4.00% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | 4.731% | 4.00% |
19 rows: scroll the table for the rest.
How we make these charts: one chart a day from a story in the edition, drawn from the figures the story names and checked against the sources named on the chart before it is published. General information only, not financial advice.
