Daily newsletter · Sat 3 Oct 2026
America added 29,000 jobs in September, and Wall Street took it as good news
American employers added 29,000 jobs in September, about a third of what economists expected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Health care supplied 17,000 of the new jobs on its own.
So why did stocks rally on a bad number? The Federal Reserve has been leaning towards another rate rise, and a cooling job market weakens the case for one. By Friday's close, futures put the odds of a rise at the 27-28 October meeting at about one in five.
Pay helped too. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in the month and 3.0% over the year, against the 3.2% economists expected. Slower pay rises put less pressure on prices.
Bonds were harder to convince. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to about 5.18% just after the report, then climbed for the rest of the day. It settled near 5.28%, almost five basis points higher than it started.
futures still price a rise by December, so Friday pushed the expected move back a meeting or so. Our read is that the job market is cooling faster than inflation is, and the Fed now has to decide which of the two worries it more.
More in
All stories →- Wednesday 11 November October's inflation report put a half-point rate rise back on the table
- Saturday 7 November America added 165,000 jobs in October, and the bond market heard a December rate rise
- Wednesday 4 November The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to a level Australians have not seen since 2008
General information and commentary only, not financial advice. It does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs, and reflects the author's own reading of public information at the time of writing, which may be wrong. Sharespective, its people and its clients may hold positions in the companies covered. Do your own research and talk to a licensed adviser.