America is growing far more corn than anyone expected, and Deere had its worst week in two years

Deere

Deere fell 4.85% to US$620.93 on Friday. That left the tractor maker 9.6% lower for the week, its worst since August 2024.

The trigger was a bumper corn crop. On Friday the US Department of Agriculture raised its corn yield estimate by 2.7 bushels an acre, to 181.2. The market had expected a cut, to 177.7.

That puts the harvest at 16.03 billion bushels, the second-largest American crop on record. Corn futures fell sharply, and AGCO and CNH Industrial, Deere's two big listed rivals, each lost about 5% on the day.

Chart: Deere's value outran its shrinking sales. Deere's revenue by financial year and its market value at each year end and at Friday's close, in US$bn on one scale. Sales fell from 61.3 in 2023 to 45.7 in 2025. — This story’s chart of the day: the numbers, the dark version and the animated version are on its own page. The chart’s page →

Cheaper corn leaves farmers with less to spend on a new harvester. Deere also has a regulator to deal with. On Wednesday the Federal Trade Commission and the agriculture department opened a joint inquiry into how farm equipment is sold and repaired, with comments open until 7 December.

The fertiliser makers had a rough week too. Mosaic fell about 11% to US$18.74 after RBC Capital Markets downgraded it on Monday, citing a slow recovery in phosphates.

Boiled down

a bigger harvest means cheaper corn, and cheaper corn means smaller farm budgets next year. The equipment makers' order books will show that before their profits do.

This story ran in Harvest Season Monday 12 October’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition →

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