Americans told a survey they feel terrible, then went and booked a cruise

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index landed at 81.9 in September, against the 89 or so economists expected. The present situation index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, and views of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024.

The forward-looking half is the worrying one. The expectations index, which covers the next six months, dropped 5.9 points to 63.6. The Conference Board treats a reading under 80 as consistent with a recession within the year, and September was the third monthly fall in a row.

Tuesday's labour data did not help. Job openings fell by 256,000 in August to 7.079 million, against the 7.23 million economists expected. Hiring and quits barely moved.

Chart: US job openings fell to 7.1 million in August. In March 2022 there were 12.3 million. US job openings and hires each month from September 2021 to August 2026, in millions, on one axis from zero. August hires were 5.2 million. — This story’s chart of the day: the numbers, the dark version and the animated version are on its own page. The chart’s page →

Then Carnival reported. The cruise operator posted record third-quarter revenue and net income, lifted its full-year guidance, and said 2027 bookings and pricing are at record levels. The shares closed 13.41% higher at US$25.11.

The short version

Americans have told surveyors they feel terrible for most of this year and then spent anyway. Our read is that the gap holds until the job market genuinely cracks, and August's openings number is the first honest sign that it might.

This story ran in Gloom And Bookings Wednesday 30 September’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition →

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Wednesday 11 November October's inflation report put a half-point rate rise back on the table
Saturday 7 November America added 165,000 jobs in October, and the bond market heard a December rate rise
Wednesday 4 November The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates to a level Australians have not seen since 2008

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