Brazilian shares in New York lost a fifth of their value after Lula won a fourth term

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Sunday's presidential runoff with 51.8% of the vote. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro took 48.2%, has refused to concede, and says he will seek to have the result annulled.

Investors had bet on the other result. Bolsonaro won the first round three weeks ago, and Brazilian assets rallied on hopes he would rein in government spending. Lula's win brought the worries about Brazil's budget and debt straight back.

In São Paulo, the Ibovespa index fell as much as 17% during the day. A 10% drop triggered the exchange's circuit breaker, a trading halt it had not needed since the COVID sell-off of 2020.

Chart: XP's revenue kept rising. Its value didn't. XP's revenue in R$bn by year (left scale) and its market value in US$bn (right scale) at each year end and on 26 October, the day its shares fell 48.36%. — This story’s chart of the day.

New York took its own hit. The iShares MSCI Brazil fund, which holds the country's biggest listed companies, fell 19.82% to US$34.15. Nu Holdings, the digital bank, lost 16.95%.

XP had the worst of it. The Brazilian investment platform closed down 48.36% at US$15.71, nearly halving in a single session. Its income comes from Brazilians trading and investing, which ties it closely to the local market.

What to watch

XP had the same customers and accounts on Monday as on Friday. What changed is the price investors demand for holding Brazilian risk. The next clue is who Lula picks for his economic team, and whether they bring a plan for the budget.

This story ran in Paperwork and Panic Tuesday 27 October’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition →

More in

All stories →

Tuesday 6 October A surprise first-round vote sent Brazil's shares in New York up 12.5%

General information and commentary only, not financial advice. It does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs, and reflects the author's own reading of public information at the time of writing, which may be wrong. Sharespective, its people and its clients may hold positions in the companies covered. Do your own research and talk to a licensed adviser.