Delta cut its profit forecast by almost a quarter, and its shares didn't move

Delta Air Lines closed 0.04% higher at US$82.17 on Friday. That was after it cut its 2026 profit forecast to between US$5.10 and US$5.60 a share, from between US$6.50 and US$7.50.

The finance chief blamed one thing. Asked about the cut, chief financial officer Erik Snell said: "All of it's fuel." Delta paid an average of US$3.61 a gallon in the September quarter, 60% more than a year earlier, and its fuel bill rose 62% to US$4.1 billion.

Adjusted earnings came in at US$1.72 a share, a little short of forecasts. Chief executive Ed Bastian expects a pre-tax profit of about US$4.5 billion this year, while absorbing a US$6 billion jump in fuel costs.

Chart: Delta's fuel bill outgrew its profit. Fuel expense and operating profit in each July-to-September quarter, 2021 to 2026, in US$bn. Filed fuel expense is a different measure from the story's US$4.1bn. — This story’s chart of the day: the numbers, the dark version and the animated version are on its own page. The chart’s page →

The rest of the business is doing well. Adjusted revenue rose 16% to US$17.6 billion, and premium cabins grew 18%. Delta expects December-quarter revenue to rise about 20%, and nearly 60% of the quarter is already booked.

The shares fell as much as 3.6% early on, then won all of it back by the close.

Our view

the market looked past the fuel bill because people are still paying for seats. The December forecast assumes jet fuel at about US$4.25 a gallon. That is the number I'd watch, because fuel above it comes straight off a forecast already cut by almost a quarter.

This story ran in Bad Reception Saturday 10 October’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition →

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