Daily newsletter · Wed 30 Sep 2026
DraftKings fell to a three-year low as prediction markets kept taking its customers
DraftKings closed at US$19.63 on Tuesday, down 7.1% and its lowest since April 2023. Flutter Entertainment, which owns FanDuel, fell about 3% to US$74.39, the least it has been worth since March 2020.
So what is a prediction market? It is an exchange where people buy and sell contracts on an outcome, and the price of the contract is the odds. Kalshi and Polymarket run them in the United States under commodities rules rather than state gambling law.
Pricing is the problem for the incumbents. A sportsbook sets a line and keeps a margin, while an exchange matches two users and charges a fee. In an Outlier survey, 35% of people who had moved across named softer prices as the reason.
Flutter also lost a country. Brazil banned online betting last week, which shut Betfair and Betnacional and costs Flutter about US$70 million of 2026 revenue. India's crackdown is worth roughly US$250 million this year and US$310 million next.
the marketing line in DraftKings' next set of quarterly accounts. Competing on price with an exchange costs real money, and that is where it turns up first.
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