Oil fell more than 7% because Iran and the United States started talking

Brent settled at US$104.77 a barrel on Monday and WTI at just over US$96. Both had climbed for four months straight, and October alone added 13.6% to Brent.

Tehran did most of the talking. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had given his government more room to negotiate. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said a deal is possible if Washington is serious about wanting one.

October's gain came from fear. Tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz through the month, one of them as recently as 30 October, and WTI rose 15.2% over the four weeks.

Chart: Brent sinks to US$104.77 on Iran-US talks. Brent crude in US$ a barrel, each Monday from 29 June to 2 November 2026. It was US$128.12 a week before Monday's fall, and no deal has been signed. — This story’s chart of the day: the numbers, the dark version and the animated version are on its own page. The chart’s page →

Cheaper crude feeds straight into the inflation numbers. Futures now put the odds of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rise in December at about 76%, against more than 80% a week ago. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.89%.

What to watch

nothing has been signed. Iranian and Qatari officials have a draft proposal in front of them, and the tankers still have to get through the strait. I'd want to see war-risk insurance on those ships come down before treating US$104 oil as the new level.

This story ran in Talking Oil Down Tuesday 3 November’s edition, with the market snapshot, the other two stories, the numbers and the week ahead. Read the whole edition →

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Tuesday 10 November An $8 billion Iranian proposal reached the White House and took another 4% off oil
Monday 9 November Energy stocks had their worst week since April 2025 as the war premium drained out of oil
Saturday 31 October Exxon Mobil and Chevron touched record highs as refining profits soared

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