Daily newsletter · Sat 14 Nov 2026
A SpaceX takeover of Tesla gets dearer every time SpaceX shares fall
Bloomberg reported on Friday that SpaceX and Tesla could announce a merger as soon as December, with a slip into early 2027 also on the table. Special committees of independent directors are running the talks, and the open items are price and control.
The arithmetic has moved against SpaceX all month. Its shares closed at US$139.11 on Friday, 12.7% below where they sat on 21 October, when Elon Musk first said both boards were looking at a deal. Tesla closed at US$390.22 and is almost exactly where it was that day.
That gap decides who ends up owning what. At SpaceX's June price of about US$200, buying Tesla at a 15% premium would have taken roughly 2.3 SpaceX shares for each Tesla share. Near US$140 it takes about 3.2, so SpaceX issues around 40% more stock for the same company.
Tesla holders would then own more than half the combined business, against about 43% at the higher price. Joel Shulman of ERShares says his greatest concern is the price SpaceX would have to pay. Nathan Johnson, Texas's incoming attorney general, says a merger of that consequence warrants tremendous scrutiny.
the committees are settling an exchange ratio that moves every session, and the cheaper SpaceX gets the more of itself it hands over. Polymarket puts an announcement by the end of June 2027 at 54%. I'd watch how Tesla's China business gets walled off, because nobody has an answer to that one yet.
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All stories →- Tuesday 3 November Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum for US$115 billion, and both sets of shareholders sold
- Thursday 22 October Musk says SpaceX and Tesla are weighing a merger, and SpaceX rose 7.79%
- Thursday 15 October Berkshire Hathaway bought more of Bending Spoons, and its shares jumped 41.2%
General information and commentary only, not financial advice. It does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs, and reflects the author's own reading of public information at the time of writing, which may be wrong. Sharespective, its people and its clients may hold positions in the companies covered. Do your own research and talk to a licensed adviser.