Buying at a record high has made little difference: 20.2% against 18.9% two years on
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On the calendar
The US releases that move markets, in New Zealand and Australian time. Economic calendar →
On the calendar
The US releases that move markets, in New Zealand and Australian time. Economic calendar →What the chart shows
Buying shares when the market has just hit a record feels like buying the top. J.P. Morgan checked every S&P 500 record high from 1970 to August 2025.
Over the next three months, a record high did lag slightly: 1.6% on average, against 2.3% from any other day. After six months the gap had all but closed, 4.5% against 4.6%. After a year the high was ahead, 9.6% against 9.4%, and after two years 20.2% against 18.9%.
These are price returns, before dividends, and averages over five decades. They show the cost of buying at a high has been short-lived.
The numbers
Average S&P 500 price return after an all-time high, against after any other day, 1970 to August 2025, in percent; before dividends.
| Bought at a record high | Bought on any other day | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| 6 months | 4.5 | 4.6 |
| 1 year | 9.6 | 9.4 |
| 2 years | 20.2 | 18.9 |
How we make these charts: drawn from the sources named on the chart, and checked against them before it is published. General information only, not financial advice.
